Forecast Responsivity – Large Pharma

Client

Global pharmaceutical company

Services

Supply Chain Optimization & Resilience

Operational Transformation & Implementation

Project Description

A stronger forecasting and risk foundation for a national shortage response -
Supporting a pharmaceutical company's response to a national medication shortage, and building the financial modeling, risk assessment, and operating model behind it

The Project

A global pharmaceutical company was navigating a national shortage of one of its flagship medications while strengthening the analytical foundation of its supply chain and commercial operations. Demand, inventory, and channel data were changing faster than existing planning tools could support. The company needed to manage the immediate shortage while developing the forecasting, financial modeling, and risk capabilities required to anticipate and respond to future disruptions.

Our Approach

Upstream Partners supported the company across shortage response, forecasting, financial modeling, and supply chain risk management. The work included:

Supporting cross-functional efforts to manage the supply shortage as the product moved toward removal from the FDA shortage list

Mapping potential local restoration initiatives and relevant stakeholders

Building segmented forecasting models to support major market access and exclusivity arrangements

Developing financial models to evaluate channel, inventory, pricing, and reimbursement strategies, and surfacing key risks for executive decision-making

Identifying operational, financial, and execution risks across trade and distribution channels, with mitigation plans to support business continuity

Impact

The company navigated the shortage with allocation and forecasting decisions grounded in data, while establishing a stronger foundation for future planning. The work created a financial modeling and risk framework, alongside an operating model, designed to support proactive decision-making and a more resilient response to supply chain disruption.

Contact us for more information

Michael Tran

Supply Chain Expert

mt@upstream.partners

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